Friday 12 August 2011

Super-currency: The next Esperanto?

US debt problems have led the Chinese authorities to be increasingly concerned over the risks associated with using its foreign currency reserves to buy US Treasury Bonds.

On several occasions leading Chinese officials, including head of the People's Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan, (see link) have proposed introducing a super-currency for government debt. The super-currency would not be a currency of an individual country or region, but rather a currency for all countries priced on a weighted average of the major world currencies.

While a nice sounding idea, a super-currency is the equivalent of creating the language of Esperanto. A super-currency would add another layer of financial complexity without solving anything. In either of the two situations below, the benefits of a super-currency are limited.

Situation 1: The RMB is not one of the weighted currencies for the super-currency.

The Chinese Government attempts to balance the risks of their foreign currency reserves by using a mix of currencies. While China could use a super-currency to balance the risks, purchasing treasury bonds from a variety of countries in a variety of currencies could produce a similar result. For example, buying reserves in a super-currency weighted at 50% US Dollar, 30% Euro, 20% Yen would produce similar results for China to placing 50% of its reserves on US Treasury bonds, 30% on Euro bonds and 20% on Yen bonds. Purchasing bonds from around the world would be simpler and less costly than setting up a new currency system.

Situation 2: The RMB is one of the weighted currencies for the super-currency.

If the RMB were one of the currencies used to weight a super-currency, China could experience negative financial effects. If foreign countries use the RMB to hold reserves, demand for RMB will increase. With China operating a controlled exchange rate, an increase in demand for RMB will lead to China accruing more foreign exchange reserves. Increasing foreign currency reserves seems a counter-intuitive solution to decreasing the risks associated with the reserves.

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